Ready to win big this Week?
Here are some of the most important trends we are seeing so far.
What are the numbers telling us?
Key insight can be taken from some of the public betting numbers this week. We are keying in on how it is affecting both player props and spreads.
Let's dive in!
Ride the Wave with The Whale's Winning Betting Analysis for This Week's NFL Action!
Here’s your breakdown of public betting action for the Week 6 NFL matchups on Sunday, October 13th, and Monday, October 14th. We’ve analyzed the percentage of public bets vs. money wagered on each game to help you spot value plays.
Sunday, October 13th
7:30 AM – Jaguars vs. Bears
Opening/Current Spread: Jaguars -1 / Bears -1.5
% of Bets: Jaguars 19% / Bears 81%
% of Money: Jaguars 42% / Bears 58%
Difference: +23% (Bears)
Total Bets: 40,430
Breakdown: The public is heavily backing the Bears with 81% of the bets, but the money is more balanced, showing 58% on Chicago. The discrepancy suggests sharper money might be leaning on the Jaguars. THE WHALE PICKS: Jags +1.5 and Caleb Williams to 300 or more passing yards (+900 Same Game Parlay)
11:00 AM – Commanders vs. Ravens
Opening/Current Spread: Ravens -8.5 / Ravens -7
% of Bets: Commanders 56% / Ravens 44%
% of Money: Commanders 40% / Ravens 60%
Difference: +16% (Ravens)
Total Bets: 31,832
Breakdown: Despite more public bets coming in on the Commanders, the majority of the money (60%) is on the Ravens, suggesting smart money favors Baltimore to cover. THE WHALE PICKS: Ravens -6.5 and Under 52.5 (+260)
11:00 AM – Texans vs. Patriots
Opening/Current Spread: Texans -5.5 / Texans -6.5
% of Bets: Texans 84% / Patriots 16%
% of Money: Texans 81% / Patriots 19%
Difference: +3% (Texans)
Total Bets: 34,785
Breakdown: The Texans are seeing a major public backing, with over 80% of both bets and money on them. The minimal difference between bets and money shows alignment between the public and sharp bettors. THE WHALE PICKS: Patriots +6.5 and Drake Maye over 0.5 Tds (+180)
11:00 AM – Browns vs. Eagles
Opening/Current Spread: Browns +3 / Browns +9
% of Bets: Browns 29% / Eagles 71%
% of Money: Browns 30% / Eagles 70%
Difference: +1% (Eagles)
Total Bets: 18,771
Breakdown: Heavy public and money support is behind the Eagles, with 71% of the bets and 70% of the money on them, indicating a solid confidence in Philadelphia covering the spread. WHALE PICKS: Under 42.5 (-112)
11:00 AM – Colts vs. Titans
Opening/Current Spread: Colts -1.5 / Colts +2.5
% of Bets: Colts 86% / Titans 14%
% of Money: Colts 83% / Titans 17%
Difference: +3% (Colts)
Total Bets: 18,306
Breakdown: The Colts are overwhelmingly favored by both the public and sharp bettors, with over 80% of bets and money backing them to win and cover. WHALE PICKS: Titans Moneyline, Calvin Ridley over 46.5 receiving yards, and Tony Pollard over 64.5 Rushing Yards (+400 Same Game Parlay)
11:00 AM – Cardinals vs. Packers
Opening/Current Spread: Cardinals +5 / Cardinals +5.5
% of Bets: Cardinals 62% / Packers 38%
% of Money: Cardinals 66% / Packers 34%
Difference: +4% (Cardinals)
Total Bets: 21,229
Breakdown: Cardinals are getting more support from both the public and money, but the spread could suggest the Packers as a potential value pick with 34% of the money backing them. WHALE PICKS: Josh Jacobs anytime TD Scorer (-138)
11:00 AM – Buccaneers vs. Saints
Opening/Current Spread: Buccaneers +1.5 / Bucs -3.5
% of Bets: Buccaneers 68% / Saints 32%
% of Money: Buccaneers 66% / Saints 34%
Difference: +2% (Buccaneers)
Total Bets: 26,329
Breakdown: The Buccaneers are favored by both the public and sharp money, with nearly 70% backing them to cover, indicating strong consensus against the Saints. WHALE PICKS: Spencer Rattler Over 194.5 Passing Yards (-110)
2:05 PM – Steelers vs. Raiders
Opening/Current Spread: Steelers -1 / Steelers -3
% of Bets: Steelers 76% / Raiders 24%
% of Money: Steelers 74% / Raiders 26%
Difference: +2% (Steelers)
Total Bets: 12,556
Breakdown: Heavy public and sharp action is backing the Steelers, with a fairly aligned distribution of bets and money. WHALE PICKS: Raiders Moneyline and Aidan O'connell over 250 passing yards (+1200) 🥵🌶️
2:05 PM – Chargers vs. Broncos
Opening/Current Spread: Chargers -3 / Chargers -3
% of Bets: Chargers 35% / Broncos 65%
% of Money: Chargers 42% / Broncos 58%
Difference: +7% (Broncos)
Total Bets: 24,829
Breakdown: While the public favors the Broncos, the sharper money shows more balanced action with slightly more money on the Broncos, pointing to potential value in Denver. WHALE PICKS: Under 35.5 and Bo Nix over 21.5 Rush Yards (+280)
2:25 PM – Lions vs. Cowboys
Opening/Current Spread: Lions -1 / Lions -3
% of Bets: Lions 64% / Cowboys 36%
% of Money: Lions 54% / Cowboys 46%
Difference: +10% (Cowboys)
Total Bets: 35,956
Breakdown: While public betting favors the Lions, the smart money is more divided, with the Cowboys seeing a larger share of the money, suggesting sharp bettors are backing Dallas. WHALE PICKS: Amon Ra St. Brown 100 or more rec yards and Ceedee Lamb 100 or more Rush yards (+700)
2:25 PM – Falcons vs. Panthers
Opening/Current Spread: Falcons -3.5 / Falcons -6
% of Bets: Falcons 88% / Panthers 12%
% of Money: Falcons 93% / Panthers 7%
Difference: +5% (Falcons)
Total Bets: 21,053
Breakdown: The Falcons are overwhelmingly backed by both the public and sharp bettors, with little confidence in the Panthers to cover the spread. WHALE PICKS: Under 47.5 (-110)
6:20 PM – Bengals vs. Giants
Opening/Current Spread: Bengals -5.5 / Bengals -4
% of Bets: Bengals 86% / Giants 14%
% of Money: Bengals 90% / Giants 10%
Difference: +4% (Bengals)
Total Bets: 23,794
Breakdown: Both public and sharp money are firmly behind the Bengals, with 90% of the money on Cincinnati, suggesting strong confidence in them covering the spread. WHALE PICKS: Bengals -3.5 (-114)
Monday, October 14th
6:15 PM – Bills vs. Jets
Opening/Current Spread: Bills +1.5 / Bills -2.5
% of Bets: Bills 67% / Jets 33%
% of Money: Bills 52% / Jets 48%
Difference: +15% (Bills)
Total Bets: 17,650
Breakdown: The public is backing the Bills with 67% of bets, but the money is more split, suggesting some sharper action on the Jets to cover. WHALE PICKS: Jets ML and Breece Hall Over 80.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards